This week I felt it was time to stretch the lens.
The weekly Deal Box Dispatch has, and will continue to track, tokenization and RWAs, but the bigger picture lives in the data. Two stories in particular stood out to me this week. One is Bain’s forecast showing AI compute demand sprinting past the grid. The other is Washington pushing surplus nations to redirect reserves out of Treasuries and into U.S. industry. Both stories raise the same question: where does capital go when the bottlenecks multiply?
The mechanics matter. AI infrastructure is not a side theme anymore. It is a line item that will decide margins, multiples, and who can scale. Reserve shifts are not just policy noise. They change the cost of capital itself. Put those alongside a record-setting buyout of EA and a shutdown that blinds the Fed, and the pattern is clear. Capital is being forced to choose, and not every part of the market can be funded at once.
For founders and allocators, the connection is direct. Tokenization does not create more money, but it can change how money shows up. It can break projects into investable pieces, bring in a wider base of investors, and keep reporting live instead of lost in PDFs. In a market where infrastructure, capital, and policy move at different speeds, the job is not to predict every turn. The job is to structure ownership so you can keep raising even when the system tilts.
📈 BY THE NUMBERS
AI Compute Surge Exposes $800B Infrastructure Gap
Bain projects data center investment will climb to $500B annually by 2030, generating $2T in revenue and savings. But AI demand is growing twice as fast, reaching an expected 200 GW globally, half in the U.S. After two decades of flat grid growth, this scale-up threatens to overwhelm infrastructure. Even if IT budgets went fully to cloud, the gap would still near $800B each year.
Why it’s a top read this week:
AI is not only a software race, it is an energy and capital race. Infrastructure now sets the pace for adoption.
📡 HEADLINE SIGNAL
EA Goes Private in $55B Buyout, Largest LBO in History
Electronic Arts will be taken private in a $55B leveraged buyout, the largest ever recorded. The deal is led by Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and Affinity Partners. It shows that appetite for scale in private markets remains strong, even as financing costs stay uncertain.
Why it’s a top read this week:
Mega-deals are back. Global capital sources are willing to underwrite massive transactions, signaling private equity still sees room to reshape mature companies.
📈 BY THE NUMBERS
U.S. Pushes Surplus Nations Toward Industrial Investment
Washington is urging surplus nations to direct reserves into U.S. industrial projects instead of Treasuries, offering tariff relief as an incentive. The move could channel foreign capital into domestic growth sectors, but it risks driving Treasury yields higher as reserves are sold. For surplus nations, it reduces currency flexibility, even if swap lines ease the shift.
Why it’s a top read this week:
The policy underscores U.S. leverage in capital flows, but it also accelerates diversification away from dollar assets. Allocators will need to track how reserve management reshapes demand for Treasuries and growth capital.
📡 HEADLINE SIGNAL
Government Shutdown Begins, Furloughs, Uncertainty & Market Risk
The U.S. government entered shutdown on October 1 after funding authorization expired. About 750,000 federal workers face furloughs, agencies are pausing operations, and essential services will only partially continue. The disruption also delays key data releases and slows contract approvals, adding uncertainty to markets already facing volatility.
Why it’s a top read this week:
A shutdown clouds visibility at the exact moment clarity is needed. Economic data gaps, procurement delays, and weaker sentiment could weigh on growth, while deal timelines risk stretching in uncertain regulatory conditions.
Honolulu is calling.
The Deal Box Innovation Forum is making its way to Hawaii. 🌺 Thanks to your feedback, we’re now locking in the venue, dates, and agenda.
Full details will be shared soon.
That’s it for this week.
Thanks for reading the latest Dispatch. If you made it this far, you’re part of the shift. 🌊
See you next week, with more plays worth tracking.
— Thomas